Back in June of 2009, Jimmie Johnson dominated the race. He was leading when a late caution came out with just 38 laps to go. A slow pit stop, sent him to ninth position for the restart.
Greg Biffle would be the new leader until eight laps to go, when Tony Stewart would take it away with Johnson right on his tail. Stewart and Johnson would battle nose to tail for six more laps. Johnson would then close Stewart off on the high side to make the pass.
Chad Knas said “The pit snafu was unfortunate but, luckily, not costly”.
Again in September of 2009, Johnson would dominate the field. He led 298 laps in May at Dover and would lead 271 at this race again bringing home the win and the Dover sweep for 2009.
Horseshoe or Hogwash? Let’s run the numbers and see who’s hot at Dover, same track types and current hot streak!
Track Stats
70 – Races
32,504 – Total Laps
2,771 – Total Cars
548 – Leaders
910 – DNF’s @ 2.53%
Since 1975
Track Specs
Superspeedway 1-mile oval
Banking – Straights 9 degrees , Turns 24 degrees
Frontstretch – 1,076 feet
Backstretch – 1,076 feet
Pit Stalls – 15 feet wide, 32 feet long
Pace Car Speed – 45
Pit Road Speed – 35
Most Wins By Manufacturer – Chevy (30)
Races won from top 10 – 62 of 80
Races won from top 5 – 48 of 80
Races won from pole – 12 of 80
Top 15 Average Starters From Dover (Last 4 Races)
3.8 – Greg Biffle
8.3 – Jimmie Johnson
8.8 – Kyle Busch
10.0 – Jeremy Mayfield (1 race)
10.3 – Kurt Busch
11.0 – Ryan Newman
11.3 – Brian Vickers
13.5 – Travis Kvapil (2 races)
14.3 – Jamie McMurray
14.3 – Jeff Gordon
14.8 – Kasey Kahne
15.5 – Sam Hornish Jr.
16.0 – Joey Logano (2 races)
16.0 – A.J. Allmendinger
Top 15 Finishing Averages From Dover (Last 4 Races)
3.25 – Matt Kenseth
3.50 – Jimmie Johnson
5.00 – Greg Biffle
5.75 – Carl Edwards
9.75 – Mark Martin
11.00 – Jeff Gordon
11.25 – Ryan Newman
12.25 – Jeff Burton
14.50 – Casey Mears
15.75 – Tony Stewart
16.00 – Kurt Busch
17.00 – Travis Kvapil (2 races)
17.50 – Clint Bowyer
17.75 – Kasey Kahne
18.25 – Kevin Harvick
Top 10 Dover Lap Leaders (Last 4 Races)
652 – Jimmie Johnson
234 – Greg Biffle
161 – Carl Edwards
158 – Kyle Busch
144 – Matt Kenseth
99 – Kurt Busch
36 – Jamie McMurray
35 – Ryan Newman
33 – Jeff Gordon
25 – David Reutimann
Top 10 Leaders At Dover (Last 4 Races)
4 – Jimmie Johnson
4 – Matt Kenseth
3 – Jeff Gordon
3 – Mark Martin
3 – Greg Biffle
2 – Kasey Kahne
2 – Kurt Busch
2 – Tony Stewart
2 – Ryan Newman
2 – Jeff Burton
Top 5 Leaders At Dover (Last 4 Races)
4 – Matt Kenseth
3 – Greg Biffle
3 – Jimmie Johnson
2 – Kurt Busch
2 – Carl Edwards
2 – Mark Martin
1 – Juan Pablo Montoya
1 – Kyle Busch
1 – Tony Stewart
1 – Jeff Gordon
Dover Driver Ratings (Last 10 Races)
114.7 – Greg Biffle
112.6 – Matt Kenseth
112.3 – Jimmie Johnson
103.7 – Carl Edwards
101.9 – Mark Martin
98.8 – Ryan Newman
98.5 – Kyle Busch
96.2 – Kurt Busch
90.3 – Jeff Gordon
89.9 – Clint Bowyer
Top % Running In Top 15 At Dover (Last 10)
93.6% – Greg Biffle
89.4% – Matt Kenseth
89.1% – Ryan Newman
80.1% – Jimmie Johnson
78.5% – Mark Martin
70.6% – Carl Edwards
70.5% – Clint Bowyer
70.4% – Kurt Busch
67.2% – Jeff Gordon
66.3% – Kyle Busch
Dover Fastest Early In The Run (Last 10)
144.921 – Matt Kenseth
144.873 – Greg Biffle
144.851 – Jimmie Johnson
144.544 – Joey Logano (2 races)
144.475 – Kurt Busch
144.328 – Jeff Gordon
144.247 – Mark Martin
144.202 – Kyle Busch
144.176 – Carl Edwards
144.133 – Ryan Newman
Dover Fastest Late In The Run (Last 10)
140.681 – Greg Biffle
140.659 – Matt Kenseth
140.650 – Jimmie Johnson
140.568 – Carl Edwards
140.561 – Mark Martin
140.401 – Kyle Busch
140.320 – Clint Bowyer
140.293 – Jeff Burton
140.207 – Kurt Busch
140.188 – Jeff Gordon
Dover Fastest Laps Run (Last 10)
475 – Jimmie Johnson
372 – Greg Biffle
306 – Matt Kenseth
288 – Carl Edwards
270 – Mark Martin
175 – Kyle Busch
151 – Martin Truex Jr.
143 – Kurt Busch
111 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
96 – Kasey Kahne
Dover Fastest On Restarts (Last 10)
142.718 – Matt Kenseth
142.434 – Greg Biffle
142.412 – Jimmie Johnson
142.201 – Kyle Busch
142.100 – Kurt Busch
141.854 – Carl Edwards
141.740 – Ryan Newman
141.696 – Jeff Gordon
141.622 – Mark Martin
141.148 – Joey Logano (2 races)
Similar Steep Banked Track Finishing Averages
(Las Vegas, Bristol, Dover, Darlington and Homestead)
8.2 – Jimmie Johnson
9.7 – Jeff Gordon
10.4 – Jeff Burton
11.2 – Kurt Busch
12.4 – Greg Biffle
12.6 – Ryan Newman
12.8 – Mark Martin
13.0 – Kyle Busch
13.8 – Carl Edwards
13.9 – Matt Kenseth
14.0 – Denny Hamlin
Who’s Spoiled Average Finishes
(Last 6-2010 Races Wingless)
8.00 – Denny Hamlin
8.33 – Kyle Busch
10.67 – Jeff Gordon
10.83 – Kevin Harvick
11.33 – Ryan Newman
11.50 – martin Truex Jr.
12.83 – Mark Martin
13.17 – Carl Edwards
14.83 – Juan Pablo Montoya
15.17 – Jimmie Johnson
Laps Led Wingless (Last 6) 2010 Races
477 – Jeff Gordon
390 – Kyle busch
305 – Denny Hamlin
229 – Jeff Burton
161 – Jimmie Johnson
109 – Juan Pablo Montoya
108 – Jamie McMurray
97 – Tony Stewart
62 – Kevin Harvick
54 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
29 – Kurt Busch
26 – Mark Martin
22 – Brian Vickers
22 – A.J. Allmendinger
16 – Greg Biffle
Top 10 Leaders Wingless (Last 6) 2010 Races
5 – Kyle Busch
4 – Ryan Newman
4 – Kevin Harvick
4 – Juan Pablo Montoya
4 – Jimmie Johnson
4 – Denny Hamlin
4 – Jeff Gordon
3 – Clint Bowyer
3 – Martin Truex Jr.
3 – Carl Edwards
3 – Mark Martin
3 – Kurt Busch
2 – Joey Logano
2 – Greg Biffle
2 – Brian Vickers
2 – Jamie McMurray
2 – Jeff Burton
Top 5 Leaders Wingless (Last 6) 2010 Races
4 – Jeff Gordon
4 – Denny Hamlin
3 – Juan Pablo Montoya
2 – Jamie McMurray
2 – Kurt Busch
2 – Mark Martin
2 – Jimmie Johnson
2 – Kevin Harvick
2 – Ryan Newman
2 – Kyle Busch
Last 6 Wingless Winners – 2010
3 – Denny Hamlin
1 – Kyle Busch
1 – Ryan Newman
1 – Kevin Harvick
Fantasy Picks
Group A
Jimmie Johnson
Greg Biffle
Group B
Clint Bowyer
Jeff Burton
Matt Kenseth
Martin Truex Jr.
Group C
Scott Speed
A.J. Allmendinger
Drivers To Watch
Greg Biffle – 100% of the last 10 races were all finished in the top 13. Out of those ten races, 8 were top 10 and 6 were top 5. Last 5 races here – 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 3rd and 13th.
Jimmie Johnson – Many will pick Johnson to win due to his past back to back wins. Last ten races here, 100% were in the top 15. Out of those ten, 7 were top 10 and 5 top 5’s. His last 5 races here – 14th, 7th, 5th, 1st and 1st. Season to date driver rating for the 2010 season is 108.1
Carl Edwards – While he’s not having the best year, he has put up some good numbers here. In the last ten races, all have been finished in the top 16. Out of those ten races, 7 were top 10 and 5 were top 5’s. His last 7 races here – 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 7th and 11th.
Mark Martin – Out of ten races, 9 were 14th or better and the other was 23rd. Out of those ten, 8 were top 10 and 5 top 5’s. His last 6 races here – 7th, 4th, 23rd, 4th, 10th and 2nd.
Jeff Burton – 100% of the last 10 races here were finishes 16th or better. Out of those ten, 5 were top 10 and 2 were top 5. His last 5 races here – 7th, 8th, 9th, 16th and 16th.
Matt Kenseth – Kenseth had trouble in ’05 and again in ’07 placing 35th both times. The remaining 8 races were 10th or better. Those 8 races here – 7th, 1st, 10th, 5th, 4th, 2nd, 4th and 3rd.
Ryan Newman – Two races stand out placing 24th and 28th, but the remaining 8 were 8th, 5th, 14th, 2nd, 14th, 13th, 8th and 10th.
Clint Bowyer – One red flag placing 36th, the other 7 were 17th or better. Those were – 17th, 8th, 8th, 12th, 8th, 11th and 15th.
Jeff Gordon – He too had two bad finishes in the last ten races, both coming in ’05 placing 39th and 37th. Since ’05, he has placed 12th, 3rd, 9th, 11th, 5th, 7th, 26th and 6th.
Not So Hot
Denny Hamlin – Great past few races this season, but the past few races at Dover, not so good. Last 5 races for Hamlin at Dover – 38th, 43rd, 38th, 36th and 22nd. Out of 8 races, that leaves him with a 25.1 finishing average.
I’m not saying Hamlin won’t do well here, just factor all the stats. He won the Nationwide race and the Cup race, so can we please stop talking about his knee? It’s fine!
There you have it, all the numbers you need to help get you started in making your decision. Factor in practice speeds if you need more help. Don’t lean on qualifying much, we see drivers moving through the field from 43rd to the top 5 all the time. Compare past numbers with how well that certain driver is performing this current season. Good Luck and enjoy the race.
For even more loop data, check the
Pre Race Data Ebook
