Mark Martin won the LifeLock 400 last year at Michigan, with just enough in the tank. Martin turned off everything he could in the car to nurse it to victory, when he learned it would be won on a fuel economy run. “ I always, always come up short in those gas things.” Martin said. “I’m probably about 2 and 25 in these things.”
Jimmie Johnson dominated the race and took the lead from Greg Biffle, six laps from the end. Johnson however, would run out of fuel 2 laps short.
Jimmie Johnson and Greg Biffle were poised to win, before they both ran out of gas with victory in sight. Martin also ran out of fuel, but had enough to coast to victory. Can we expect fuel to play a factor again? Johnson had the car to beat. Let’s look at who you should keep an eye on at Michigan, statistically speaking that is.
Top 10 Finishers That Day
Mark Martin
Jeff Gordon
Denny Hamlin
Carl Edwards
Greg Biffle
Juan Montoya
Tony Stewart
Kurt Busch
Brian Vickers
Clint Bowyer
Track Numbers
70 – Races
13,891 – Total Laps
2,829 – Total Cars
653 – Total Leaders
679 – Total DNF’s @ 2.47%
Since June 15, 1975
Track Specs
Superspeedway – 2.0 mile D-shaped oval
18 degree banking in the turns
12 degree banking in the frontstretch
5 degree banking in the backstretch
3,600 feet – Frontstretch length
2,242 feet – Backstretch length
73 feet wide / 10 ft apron in turns
45 feet wide / 12 ft apron straights
50 feet wide – pit lane
45 mph – Pit Road Speed
55 mph – Pace Car Speed
Best Chance Of Winning vs Starting
16 of 81 won from the pole @ 19.753%
52 of 81 won from top 5 @ 64.198%
63 of 81 won from top 10 @ 77.78%
Last 10 Michigan Winners
2009 – Brian Vickers
2009 – Mark Martin
2008 – Carl Edwards
2008 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
2007 – Kurt Busch
2007 – Carl Edwards
2006 – Matt Kenseth
2006 – Kasey Kahne
2005 – Jeremy Mayfield
2005 – Greg Biffle
Top Average Running Positions @ Michigan (Last 10)
7.858 – Carl Edwards
7.961 – Jimmie Johnson
9.449 – Greg Biffle
11.438 – Matt Kenseth
11.556 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
12.033 – Denny Hamlin
12.569 – Jeff Gordon
13.150 – Kurt Busch
13.759 – Tony Stewart
14.356 – Mark Martin
Top Closers @ Michigan (Last 10) Spots Gained
28 – Bill Elliott
22 – Paul Menard
22 – Scott Riggs
20 – Joe Nemechek
19 – Michael Waltrip
17 – Reed Sorenson
16 – David Stremme
15 – Travis Kvapil
13 – Sam Hornish Jr.
13 – Casey Mears
13 – Elliott Sadler
13 – Brian Vickers
11 – Matt Kenseth
Top Driver Ratings @ Michigan (Last 10)
112.5 – Carl Edwards
111.0 – Jimmie Johnson
103.5 – Greg Biffle
103.1 – Matt Kenseth
99.1 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
96.5 – Kurt Busch
96.3 – Jeff Gordon
95.0 – Tony Stewart
93.6 – Brian Vickers
93.1 – Kyle Busch
Fastest Early In A Run @ Michigan (Last 10)
176.810 – Jimmie Johnson
176.628 – Carl Edwards
176.502 – Matt Kenseth
176.413 – Greg Biffle
176.046 – Kyle Busch
176.042 – Mark Martin
176.000 – Jeff Gordon
175.984 – Denny Hamlin
175.974 – Kurt Busch
175.906 – Tony Stewart
Fastest Late In A Run @ Michigan (Last 10)
171.775 – Carl Edwards
171.654 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
171.612 – Jimmie Johnson
171.515 – Greg Biffle
171.437 – Brian Vickers
171.298 – Matt Kenseth
171.232 – Tony Stewart
171.223 – Denny Hamlin
171.049 – Jeff Gordon
170.966 – Kurt Busch
Fastest Laps Run @ Michigan (Last 10)
249 – Jimmie Johnson
143 – Carl Edwards
124 – Greg Biffle
113 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
106 – Jeff Gordon
102 – Kurt Busch
89 – Brian Vickers
88 – Matt Kenseth
73 – Kyle Busch
61 – Kasey Kahne
As we have seen lately and pretty much most of the season, restarts is where it’s at. This season, Kyle Busch has been a hot re-starter! Let’s see who has the best at Michigan.
Fastest Restarts @ Michigan (Last 10)
173.327 – Jimmie Johnson
173.325 – Kyle Busch (Don’t Blink, That’s close)
173.006 – Carl Edwards
172.888 – Matt Kenseth
172.740 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
172.673 – Greg Biffle
172.615 – Kurt Busch
172.538 – Brian Vickers
172.528 – Denny Hamlin
172.467 – Kasey Kahne
Top Driver Laps In Top 15 @ Michigan (Last 10)
1,702 – Carl Edwards – 88.0%
1,609 – Jimmie Johnson – 83.2%
1,551 – Greg Biffle – 80.2%
1,520 – Matt Kenseth – 78.6%
1,346 – Tony Stewart – 69.6%
1,344 – Kyle Busch – 69.5%
1,339 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. – 69.2%
1,336 – Jeff Gordon – 69.0%
1,335 – Kurt Busch – 69.0%
1,304 – Mark Martin – 67.4%
Laps Led @ Michigan (Last 10)
429 – Jimmie Johnson
244 – Carl Edwards
174 – Matt Kenseth
172 – Kurt Busch
140 – Greg Biffle
109 – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
106 – Jeff Gordon
102 – Tony Stewart
95 – Brian Vickers
88 – Kyle Busch
Top Team Averages @ Michigan
11.30 – Roush Fenway – 20 races
13.83 – Joe Gibbs – 12 races
15.29 – Richard Childress – 14 races
15.50 – Stewart-Haas – 4 races
16.88 – Hendrick – 17 races
17.38 – Team Red Bull
Some drivers fair better at similar tracks than others. Below, we’ll look at those numbers. While these tracks are not exactly the same, they do resemble each other and stand alone in some ways also.
Top Average Finish @ Similar Tracks (2008 – 2010)
Fontana, Kansas, Chicago and Michigan
8.2 – Carl Edwards
8.6 – Jimmie Johnson
9.6 – Jeff Gordon
10.8 – Greg Biffle
10.9 – Tony Stewart
11.3 – Matt Kenseth
12.3 – Brian Vickers
12.6 – Kevin Harvick
13.6 – Kyle Busch
14.2 – Mark Martin
Top Avg % In Top 15 @ Similar Tracks
94.5% – Jimmie Johnson
83.2% – Jeff Gordon
80.2% – Carl Edwards
78.8% – Greg Biffle
78.0 % – Mark Martin
71.6% – Tony Stewart
69.5% – Matt Kenseth
68.5% – Kevin Harvick
67.5% – Brian Vickers
67.1% – Kyle Busch
These stats are all well and good, as they are a great indicator of who does what, where. Now, who is on a hot streak this season? Let’s look at driver momentum.
Driver Momentum – Top Finishers (Best Of Last 3 Races – 2010)
2.0 – Kyle Busch
7.3 – Kevin Harvick
7.7 – Denny Hamlin
8.3 – David Reutimann
8.7 – Kurt Busch
9.0 – Tony Stewart
10.0 – Matt Kenseth
11.0 – Clint Bowyer
11.3 – Jeff Burton
12.0 – Joey Logano
Avg Running Position (Last 3 2010 Races)
5.3 – Kyle Busch
7.3 – Clint Bowyer
7.7 – Jeff Burton
9.0 – Denny Hamlin
10.7 – Kevin Harvick
10.7 – Joey Logano
10.7 – Jimmie Johnson
11.3 – Tony Stewart
11.3 – Jeff Gordon
12.0 – Kurt Busch
% of Laps In Top 15 (Last 3 2010 Races)
91.7% – Clint Bowyer
90.7% – Jeff Burton
90.7% – Kyle Busch
90.0% – Joey Logano
83.7% – Jeff Gordon
81.0% – Denny Hamlin
79.6% – Tony Stewart
74.7% – Kevin Harvick
72.1% – Jimmie Johnson
69.6% – Greg Biffle
2010 Lap Leaders
726 – Kurt Busch
712 – Jeff Gordon
626 – Kyle Busch
625 – Jimmie Johnson
435 – Denny Hamlin
279 – Jeff Burton
178 – Kasey Kahne
172 – Juan Montoya
139 – Jamie McMurray
137 – Kevin Harvick
Depending on how well the drivers do in practice and how well they are doing this season, these stats should be a good indication of who to watch and avoid at Michigan. Again, this is just STATISTICALLY SPEAKING.
Drivers To Watch
Carl Edwards – Last 10 races here, he has collected 9 finishes 7th or better. The other was 22nd. Two were wins and 7 of the 10 were top 5’s.
Tony Stewart – Last 10 races here, he has 7 top 10’s. Half of those were top 5’s. Not counting the one mishap in 2006 where he placed 41st, the others outside the top 10 were 12th and 17th.
Matt Kenseth – He’s picked up a win and some near misses. He has 6 top 5’s in his last 10 races here. The near misses were – 4th, 3rd, 4th, 3rd and 5th. The others were – 42nd, 13th, 20th and 14th.
Greg Biffle – He has a win and 6 top 10’s in his last 10 here. His worst here was 38th.
Denny Hamlin – The knee has not slowed him down since his return in 2010. His stats at Michigan are not too shabby either. In 8 races here, all were top 14 finishes besides one, where he placed 39th. His last two were 3rd and 10th.
Kevin Harvick – Maybe he don’t wear the firesuit, but he does know how to average a top 15 finish at Michigan. In the last 8 at Michigan, he has placed – 10th, 11th, 7th, 15th, 12th, 8th, 18th and 12th. While he may not be a strong pick to win, he is almost a safe pick. In the last 3, 2010 races, his average finish is 7.3. He could do well if he can steer clear of Joey this weekend.
Jimmie Johnson – The loop data looks way better than his actual finishes. In the last 10 races here, he only has 4 top 10 finishes. 0 were wins. His last 3 here were – 17th, 22nd and 33rd.
Drivers to Avoid
Marcos Ambrose – Last 3 races here were – 43rd, 31st and 35th
David Gilliland – Last 5 races here were – 28th, 27th, 26th, 32nd and 40th.
A.J Allmendinger – 27.8 average finish and last 4 here were – 19th, 28th, 39th and 22nd.
Reed Sorenson – Last 5 races here – 38th, 34th, 33rd, 27th and 29th.
My Picks
I picked Denny Hamlin to win last week and was right on the nose. I did it after I watched what the teams did in practice. I currently have a 7.93 average winning pick. If I had to pick right now, I would pick Jimmie Johnson to win and like Hamlin and Biffle as my back-up drivers. However, I will hold my tongue until I see how they look in practice. Good luck to you all!
Ok, after practice speeds are in, I stand by my decision that Johnson will win and I think Hamlin will be in the top 5.
I look for Logano to peak his head in there too.